Vaccine Controversy

Dad asked me about flu vaccines last week and said there was some sort of controversy. I told him that I didn't really know about any controversy, that the effectiveness of flu vaccines was only middle of the road, and that probably only infants or the elderly really need one, but if its easy for you to get one you might as well.

In retrospect, it seems he was talking about controversy over the saftey of the vaccine, rather than its effectiveness. This is another issue entirely.

The following story got me started. Bill Maher - near the top of my list of people that no one should listen to - making an ass of himself. Frist may not be my favorite senator, but he's a heart surgeon, and Bill Maher is nothing.

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/bill-maher-vs-the-flu-vaccine/?ex=1271131200&en=9635c8a503cdf862&ei=5087&WT.mc_id=HL-D-I-NYT-MOD-MOD-M119-ROS-1009-L1&WT.mc_ev=click

My favorite part is where he tells people that he would never get a vaccine, any vaccine. I'll bet he'd line up really damn quick if smallpox were going around.

The director of the WHO says that China has vaccinated 34,000 people for H1N1 and all of 14 have reported any sort of side effects, which may not even be associated with the vaccine.

http://www.pacificcitizen.org/site/details/tabid/55/selectmoduleid/373/ArticleID/437/reftab/0/Default.aspx?title=%E2%80%98Swine_Flu%E2%80%99_and_the_Asian_Pacific_American_Community

This is obviously not a clinical study. But here is a great review of a bunch of them, with proper citations:

http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/?p=2040

Conclusion: The efficacy of flu vaccines is certainly not the best. The review above and other studies give about 50% +/- 10%. It turns out to be incredibly complicated to properly evaluate effectiveness for flu vaccines because there are so many variables.

The safety of the vaccine, however, is nearly unassailable within statistical limits. Here is a summary of studies from the FDA

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/vaccine_safety.htm

Here is one of the best clinical studies I found, which concludes essentially that the side effects from the vaccine are mild and temporary (redness at the injection site, low fever, etc.)

http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/296/16/1990

Here, if you don't trust "conventional medicine", is essentially the same appraisal from an alternative medicine shop and a TV network:

http://www.vaxa.com/flu-shot-side-effects.cfm
http://health.discovery.com/centers/coldsflu/ultguideflu/flushot.html

The most touted incredibly dangerous side effect of the flu vaccine is the incidence of Guillain Barre syndrome, which is a serious complication.

http://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/gbs/gbs.htm

Here is the study that gets vaccine conspiracy theorists salivating:

http://www.thinktwice.com/gbs.pdf

This is an important study. It is well done and raises a legitimate issue. However, pay attention to Table 1. We are measuring cases of GBS per 10 million vaccinations. Your risk of getting GBS from the flu vaccine, then, is roughly one in one million. Most people survive GBS (as per the link above). Your risk, on the other hand, of getting the flu and *dying* in the U.S. is roughly 1 in 10,000. A hundred times greater! Under these numbers, even if we assume that everyone who contracts GBS dies, if the vaccine reduces your risk of contracting the flu by even 1%, getting it is the logical decision.

Again, I am not minimizing the issue. Our vaccines seem to be causing GBS and it is important to find out why. This doesn't mean, however, that you shouldn't get it.

Another important point: The flu shot absolutely does not cause the flu. The virus is dead, deaddy, dead, dead. You may get the flu shortly after getting the shot, but there's no way it could have come from the shot. You might get some symptoms, but you won't get the flu. Read the CDC pages above. It's pretty basic biology.

All of this, of course, will not prevent people from bellying up to the crazy bar:

http://www.thinktwice.com/flu.htm
http://www.nvic.org/
http://thebirdflupandemic.com/archives/scientists-express-grave-concern-about-swine-flu-vaccine-safety

My favorite one is the top one. I am delighted when people substitute "unsolicited anecdotes" for actual research. It's so adorable!